![]() ![]() The light blue shaded area represents the number of ARkStormo-level events predicted in each year by two-thirds of the model runs. Average number of ARkStorm-like events predicted under a business-as-usual emissions scenario ( RCP8.5, thick blue line) by 40 climate simulations from the NCAR Community Earth System Model, along with the number expected in the climate from pre-industrial times (dashed line). Thus, damages from an ARkStorm could easily reach the $1 trillion threshold-particularly if a repeat of one of the six stronger storms documented in the past 2000 years were to hit.įigure 3. They cautioned that these impacts were not exhaustive, since they did not consider tourism and recreation, or loss of cultural value as a result of damage to historic artifacts and sites. About 55% of the damage was to buildings, infrastructure, and agriculture, while 45% was due to business interruption. The USGS ARkStorm did $725 billion (2007 dollars) in damage, which is $900 billion in 2019 dollars (4% of U.S. Since there is very little data on the meteorological conditions prevailing at the time of the 1861 – 1862 storm, the USGS ArkStorm scenario used a computer-modeled hybrid storm that combined two actual storms that hit California (a Southern California storm from January 19-27, 1969, followed by a northern California storm from February 8-20, 1986, with an additional tweak to produce a sufficient amount of precipitation to approximately match the limited observations of 1861 - 1862). Areas of California expected to flood (colored blue) under the 2011 “ARkStorm Scenario” modeled by the USGS. The storm they modeled could flood up to 25% of all buildings in the state, breach approximately 50 levees, and force the evacuation of 1.5 million people.įigure 2. ![]() If a storm with an equivalent amount of precipitation were to hit California now, it might do $900 billion (2019 dollars) in damage, according to a 2011 study by the USGS called the “ARkStorm Scenario” (the “AR” stands for Atmospheric River, and the “k” stands for the number one thousand, since the storm could be expected to bring 1-in-1000-year rains to some locations). Sediment research has found that six storms even more severe than the 1861 – 1862 storm hit California in the years 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605 AD. The resulting floods put downtown Sacramento under 10+ feet of water, forcing movement of the state capital to San Francisco. A 45-day period of torrential rains from multiple storms carrying a strong “ atmospheric river” (AR) of tropical moisture impacted the state, turning California’s Central Valley into a lake 300 miles long and over 20 miles wide. The most recent one occurred back in the winter of 1861 – 1862. Storms capable of causing a $1 trillion flood in California have hit multiple times in the past, so it is only a matter of time before one occurs again. The Russian River rose to major flood stage in Guerneville, where over 2000 buildings flooded. A Category 3 atmospheric river (AR) impacted California February 25 – 27, 2019, dumping a 3-day rainfall amount of 21.36” at Venado. A kayaker paddles through a Pee Wee golf course in a flooded neighborhood on Februin Guerneville, California. One dramatic example of the type of damage such a storm could potentially cause is the failure of the Whittier Narrows Dam on the San Gabriel River in the Los Angeles metro area, which could flood up to 1 million people in the metropolitan Los Angeles area.įigure 1. That’s the startling conclusion of a paper (open access) published in 2018 by a team led by Daniel Swain (University of California, Los Angeles, press release here). GDP) are steadily rising due to climate change, with a greater than 50% chance of one occurring in the next 40 years. The odds of a 1-in-200-year flood in California costing nearly $1 trillion (4% of U.S. Above: Floodwaters in Sacramento, California along K Street looking west from 4th Street in January 1862 (California State Library, DWR). ![]()
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